POLITICAL campaigns never stop in Sarawak but dead giveaways of state election happening pretty soon are the incessant talk of the next polls and heightened bashing of the opposition in the tightly controlled local media.
The Barisan Nasional (BN) state government led by Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud, the country's longest-serving chief minister (since March 26, 1981), is up to the challenge, though one suspects not necessarily looking forward to it.
Sarawak is traditionally a BN stronghold — in both state and parliamentary elections.
Taib's three-decade rule has seen his influence reaching virtually every nook and corner of the state, with thousands of community chiefs appointed by his administration.
One whole generation has grown up knowing only him at the helm and his retirement from service is one of intense speculation now.
Regardless, for those daring to hope for a glaringly different composition soon for the 71-seat state assembly, they are likely to be bitterly disappointed. A change in government is out of the question but not whether the opposition can reduce BN's dominance.
"We (the opposition collectively) may be looking at between 15 and 20 state seats," a state opposition lawmaker confided.
"Taking control of the state is unlikely to be within our reach now, but we want to increase our seats, and maintain that momentum to the next general election. That is the important battle."
The state polls can be held anytime before May 2011. Aside from that, with 31 parliamentary seats up for grabs, Sarawak, particularly the rural areas, is key in BN's strategy to regain its two-third majority or at least to retain control of the national legislature.
Likewise, the state is a crucial part of the opposition's strategy in its bid to take control of federal administration, but they will have their work cut out for them.
The state BN would want to avoid a similar fate faced by the coalition in the peninsula in the March 2008 general election.
It partly explains Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak's regular visits and the current pump-priming of federal funds to the tune of billions of ringgit in the state's economy, one that has been badly hit by the global economic crisis.
The Umno president was on a whirlwind two-day tour of the interiors just a week ago, and is scheduled to be back in the state tomorrow to open the 12th Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB) convention in Kuching.
Najib recently announced a RM3.4 billion allocation for infrastructure projects in Sarawak under the 10th Malaysia Plan and the government's National Key Results Areas (NKRAs). All these to head off the potential threat to the BN's reign in the land of the hornbills.
Up until the 2006 state election when it lost eight seats to the opposition and one to an independent, the BN's grip on power had been largely maintained.
That year and in what was described as the first political tsunami, DAP took an unprecedented six seats, Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) one and Sarawak National Party (SNAP) one — all at the expense of Sarawak United People's Party (SUPP), the MCA-counterpart.
SUPP contested a total of 19 seats. In Bandar Kuching itself, it lost four seats, out of five, to DAP. Other than PBB and SUPP, the other BN component party is Sarawak Progressive Democratic Party.
At one point, the opposition had nine state seats after independent assemblyman Gabriel Adit Demong, former vice-president of the now- defunct Parti Bansa Dayak Sarawak, joined PKR. He has since hopped to Penang-based Parti Cinta Malaysia (PCM), which is seen as pro-BN.
The assemblyman who won on the SNAP ticket, Dr Jonical Rayong, turned independent after he quit the party prior to the swearing-in and is now also allied to BN.
As it now stands, the opposition holds seven state seats (DAP six and PKR one). Via lawyer Chong Chieng Jen, DAP in Bandar Kuching holds the sole parliamentary seat for the opposition.
In several seats, along with BN, both DAP and PKR contested against each other four years ago. That may change in the impending polls.
Four years back, according to reports, SNAP fielded 29 candidates, PKR 25, DAP 12 and PAS one.
An informal opposition front is in the offing as talks are underway to divvy up the seats so as to avoid split votes among them. PCM and independents will want to spoil the arrangement.
The anxiety and anticipation of the political parties in the state face-off are understandable.
There are three parts of Sarawak — the middle-class in the urban centres are mainly involved in services, trading and manufacturing activities, the agri-communities in the rural areas and the super-rich politicians and businessmen who control much of the state's economy, feeding off one another.
The last of the lot is expected to be the target of attacks for the opposition front. Much of Sarawak's towns and rural areas have remained trapped in a time warp since, some may even say, the days of the white rajahs. Even urban centres such as Kuching, Sibu and Miri do not have much to show for.
DAP, hoping to ride on its historic wins in 2006, is expected to provide the challenge to BN in the urban and semi-urban constituencies, while PKR and SNAP will do battle with the ruling coalition in rural Sarawak.
Sarawakians would have been following the developments in the peninsula since the political tsunami of March 2008 when the ruling coalition lost its two-third majority in parliament as well as five states, including Kelantan. BN has since retaken Perak after cross-overs.
How deeply they care about the developments across the South China Sea, including the sodomy charge against Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, is another matter altogether.
With over 40% of the population Christians, the Allah issue may find resonance with the Iban community, the majority of whom are of that faith.
Local issues include the pricey renewal of land leases in the urban centres, the state's control over native customary land for development, and the Iban community tussling with state authorities over land title rights.
Other issues may include lack of job opportunities, though the tremendous flow of federal funds and infrastructure projects such as those in SCORE (Sarawak Corridor of Renewable Energy) and other rural electricity and water supply projects may be mitigating factors.
Apart from Bakun dam, the state is planning to build at least 12 hydro-electricity projects over the next few years, and targets to increase hydro power supply to 6,000 megawatts by 2015 to meet demands of local industries, including SCORE. Many more hydro dams are in the pipeline.
Even in Kuching, work is underway for the phased construction of a RM3 billion central sewerage system, which is being undertaken by the turnkey contractor Kumpulan Nishimatsu-Hock Seng Lee Consortium, speculated to be linked to establishments. The opaqueness of the awards of contracts will be raised.
So too will be charges of the supply of power to the two proposed aluminium smelting plants.
Regardless of, and in spite of the issues and campaign strategies, the opposition will find it a hard sell to Sarawakians that they will be more able to administer this vast expanse of largely undeveloped land.
The outcome will reflect how much the message on the need for a strong opposition will resonate with the locals.
news courtesy of the Edge
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